Creating 100 Million Jobs in India
Development of agriculture is
critically important for ensuring food and nutritional security for the
hundreds of millions of people that still live below the poverty line, for
raising rural incomes and generating employment opportunities, and for
stimulating industrialization and overall economic development of the
country. Raising the productivity of irrigated and rain-fed agriculture,
combined with rainwater harvesting and water conservation techniques and
assured access to remunerative markets for agricultural produce through
linkages with agro-industries can dramatically raise rural incomes, generate
millions of on-farm and non-farm employment opportunities, eradicate poverty
and usher in a prosperity movement throughout rural India.
Prosperity
2000
In 1991 the International
Commission on Peace & Food (ICPF) conducted a country study of employment
potentials in India. The study found that India would need to create an
average of 10 million jobs a year for the next 10 years in order to provide
employment opportunities to all job seekers and also to the approximately 35
million unemployed at that time. The Commission drew up a strategy entitled
Prosperity 2000 which included practical and specific measures
designed to generate 100 million additional employment opportunities within
10 years.
The thrust of the
Prosperity 2000 strategy was to directly utilize agriculture as an
engine to raise on-farm incomes and purchasing power, generate additional
on-farm employment opportunities, and stimulate rural industrialization and
services. These would in turn increase demand for agricultural products,
manufactured goods and services throughout the economy, creating a
multiplier effect that generates jobs in other sectors. The specific focus
on the strategy was on raising on-farm productivity and fostering closer
linkages with industry and markets through innovative approaches to the
organization of the rural economy. The strategy was based on the perception
that due to the relatively low level of nutrition in the Indian diet, rising
income levels would result in a dramatic increase in demand for fruits,
vegetables, sugar, dairy products, fish, meat and cotton textiles. The
strategy sought to leverage this latent demand to spur job creation and
higher rural incomes which would in turn act as a stimulus on other sectors
of the economy.
The strategy was presented to
the Prime Minister, Mr. P.V. Narasimha Rao, in December 1991, examined by
the Planning Commission and related government departments, and formally
adopted by the Government of India as official strategy within three months
from its initial presentation. Manmohan Singh, then Finance Minister, now
Prime Minister of India, included funding for the program in the 1992
Budget. A specialized agency, the Small Farmers’ Agri-Business
Consortium, was also established by the Government to implement the
strategy.
Two subsequent studies were
conducted that confirmed the feasibility of this strategy at the local
level: a study of Pune District by the Agricultural Finance Corporation for
the Government of Maharasthra and a study of Pondicherry by the Mother’s
Service Society.
The original purpose of the
study had been to demonstrate a theoretical and practrical potential. It had
not been seriously envisioned that the Government would adopt the strategy
for implementation. In fact, in formulating the strategy the Commission had
stipulated that government could only effectively play a catalytic role and
recommended the establishment of autonomous agencies with strong private
sector participation to preside over implementation. In actuality, after a
delay of two years in working out bureaucratic modalities, the government
attempted to implement it through normal department channels. Shortly
afterwards, a new government came to power and the program was dropped for
political reasons. In spite of this fact, employment did record a
significant surge in the following years and to approximately double the
level prevalent in 1991.
Ten Year Review
In the national parliamentary
elections conducted in the Spring of 2004, the issue of employment was
raised to the top of the agenda and the winning coalition led by the Indian
National Congress (I) Party was elected on a platform the included a
commitment to introduce legislation to guarantee a minimum level of
employment to all job seekers in the country. It is noteworthy that the goal
of creating 10 million jobs a year was revived at this time.
In the summer of 2004, the
Commission conducted a review of the original strategy. It found that some
of the potentials it had identified have been partially exploited, such as
the dramatic increase in production of fruits and vegetables, export of
grapes and mangoes from Maharashtra to Western Europe, the rise in
production and per capita consumption of sugar, and grow of inland
aquaculture. The original report examined the current levels of food
consumption and dietary nutrition among the Indian population-at-large and
projected growth in demand that would result from the gradual rise in living
standards for fruits, vegetables, sugar and dairy products. The actually
rise in demand for fruits and vegetables has nearly matched ICPF’s
projection.
In retrospect, ICPF found
that the technological and market potentials identified in the original
study remained valid 13 years later. The scope for improving farm
productivity, the potential for improving linkages with processing
industries, and the scope for dietary enhancement remain as great as before.
However, the organizational mechanisms required to fully tap these
potentials needed to be re-examined in the light of the changing role of
government and private agencies in the development process. In addition, the
Commission found need to take into account changing external conditions that
open up new opportunities and present new challenges, especially the rise in
international energy prices and the increasing opportunities for textile
exports after the removal of quotas in January 2005.
In
retrospects, the Commission drew the following lessons and conclusions from
the India study:
1.
The study demonstrated the
theoretical possibility of creating full employment in India, the second
largest labor market in the world.
2.
The study provided a practical
strategy for achieving full employment that was accepted and endorsed by a
wide range of national level experts in government, business and the
academic community as valid and achievable.
3.
Actual implementation of the
strategy was never seriously attempted by the government.
4.
Many of the potentials identified
in the report and publicized by the media and in presentations to the
business community were at least partially exploited over the subsequent
decade.
5.
In Pune District, Maharashtra, the
one district in which the strategy was implemented aggressively by the state
government, employment growth was dramatic and labor scarcities became
prevalent.
6.
For a variety of reasons, some
directly connected with this study and some apparently unconnected,
employment generation in India has risen dramatically since the early 1990s.
Although reliable data is lacking, job growth appears sufficient at least to
absorb the seven million additional job seekers entering the labor market
every year.
Updated Strategy
At the
request of the National Farmer’s Commission, ICPF revised and updated the
strategy in the light of developments that had occurred since the original
study, lessons learned and new emerging opportunities. The
revised strategy was submitted to the Government of India in December
2004 and portions of it have been incorporated in official policy.
The
revised strategy retained many of the elements of the original program
though the approach for implementation changed significantly. The new
program also included number of significant new elements. Most notable among
the new feature was the emphasis on production of energy crops to meet
India’s surging demand for fuel and power which were projected to triple
between 2000 and 2020. The study pointed out producing energy from biomass,
bio-fuels and ethanol provided multiple benefits. It would reduce dependence
on energy imports. It would distribute the benefits of energy expenditure to
the rural population rather than to foreign energy producers. It would act
as a substantial stimulus for the development of efficient, low cost
decentralized power plants and other agro-based industries. It would
generate enormous employment potential in rural areas.
The major findings and
recommendations can be summarized as follows:
1.
The Indian economy is already
generating approximately seven million employment and self-employment
opportunities per annum, almost all of them in the informal sector, but in
there is a serious lack of accurate information on the types and numbers of
these jobs. The most effective strategy for employment generation will be to
provide the missing links and policy measures needed to accelerate this
natural process of employment generation.
2.
There is enormous scope for
raising the productivity of Indian agriculture, doubling crop yields and
farm incomes, and generating significant growth in demand for farm labour.
The report present evidence to demonstrate that improving plant nutrition
through micronutrient analysis and improving irrigation through deep
chiselling of soil can result in a tripling of crop yields.
3.
Rising rural incomes consequent to
higher productivity will unleash a multiplier effect, increasing demand for
farm and non-farm products and services, thereby stimulating rapid growth of
employment opportunities in other sectors.
4.
Indian agriculture is constrained
by weak linkages between agricultural training and extension, crop
production, credit, processing, marketing, and insurance. The report
presents an integrated strategy for bringing together all these elements in
a synergistic manner by
a.
Establishment of village-based
Farm Schools to demonstrate and impart advanced technology to farmers on
their own lands.
b.
Establishment of a network of
sophisticated soil test laboratories capable of high volume precision
analysis of 13 essential plant nutrients coupled with development of expert
computer systems to interpret soil test results and recommend
individualized packages of cultivation practices for each crop, location
and soil profile.
c.
Establishment of Rural Information
Centres to act as a medium for transmission of soil test data and
recommended practices, access to current input and market prices, and other
essential information for upgrading agriculture.
d.
Policy and legal measures to
encourage contract farming arrangements between agri-business firms and
self-help groups in order to increase small farmers’ access to advanced
technology, quality inputs, bank credit, processing, marketing and crop
insurance.
e.
Measures to strengthen farm credit
and insurance programmes, including creation of linkages between crop
insurance, crop loans, and farm school training to encourage farmers who
seek credit and crop insurance to adopt improved cultivation practices.
5.
In order to ensure ready markets
for the crops that are produced, the report focuses on the potential for
linking crop production with huge untapped markets and specific
agro-industries, including energy plantations to fuel biomass power plants,
bio-diesel from jathropa, ethanol from sugarcane and sugar-beet, edible oil
from Paradise Tree, horticulture crops and cotton.
6.
The report argues that the India
labour force suffers from a severe shortage of employable skills at all
levels and that intensive development of vocational skills will act as a
powerful stimulus for employment and self-employment generation. In addition
to Farm Schools to impart advanced skills in production agriculture, the
report recommends establishing a network of government-certified, rural
vocational institutes providing training and certification in hundreds of
vocational skills not covered by the ITIs. In order to offset the shortage
of qualified trainers and the costs of replicating institutions throughout
the country, the report advocates creation of a national network of ‘Job
Shops’ linked to the Rural Information Centres and offering televised
multimedia training programmes and computerized vocational training
programmes.
7.
The report recommends that the
National Commission on Farmers arrange for employment surveys to provide
accurate information on the growing demand for different occupational
categories, the natural rate of employment generation by category and skill
level, and other issues required to promote full employment in the country.