Toward
Full Employment Approach Paper for the Youth Employment Summitby Garry Jacobs, N. Asokan & Rajashree Venkatesh April 14, 2000 Abstract
This paper
discusses the theoretical potential, current global opportunities and broad strategies for
creation of 500 million new jobs within a decade. A theoretical understanding of
employment generation as one dimension of the social development process challenges common
misconceptions and supports the view that full employment is an achievable goal for the
international community. A progressive expansion of human needs that generate additional
employment opportunities coupled with accelerated growth in the productivity of material
and non-material resources provide the essential foundation for full employment. Current
international trends in demographics, technology and social organization are opening up
opportunities that strongly favor accomplishment of this goal. The Summit will need to
project a broad range of strategies to meet the needs of different nations, fields of
activity and concerned organizations. Strategies should tap the entire gamut of employment
opportunities from agri-business to information technology-enabled services, focusing on
activities at the next higher phase of development appropriate to each geographic region
and stratum of society. These strategies will achieve maximum results when employment is
recognized as the economic equivalent of the right to vote in political democracy and it
is guaranteed by all nations as a fundamental human right. CONTENTS Viewing youth employment in a wider context
Employment
is a fundamental human right Employment is a direct function of social values and policies Limits to employment generation Limits to productive potential Real determinant of development is human choice Employment is generated by the emergence of new ways of life The 20th Century as the greatest era of job creation in history Service sector as the greatest engine for job creation Information technology and employment Levers for human development and employment generation Precedents for Full Employment Agriculture represents the largest untapped employment opportunity Demographic trends will create acute shortage of workers in developed nations Shortage of skilled workers, not shortage of jobs Fast growing occupational categories
The shift
from work to jobs is beginning to reverse Out-moded Approaches to be Avoided Strategies -- Illustrative Examples Investment & Credit Strategies Sector-Specific Strategies for Developing Countries Commercial Agriculture and Agri-business
|
Crop |
USA |
India |
USA/India |
Rice |
8270 |
2576 |
3.2 |
Maize |
5110 |
1474 |
3.5 |
Wheat |
5680 |
2226 |
2.6 |
Pulses |
2272 |
576 |
3.9 |
Peanut |
4545 |
944 |
4.8 |
Soy beans |
2418 |
868 |
2.8 |
Potato |
43,181 |
15,969 |
2.7 |
Lint Cotton |
928 |
284 |
3.3 |
Tomato |
85,000 |
30,000 |
2.8 |
Higher employment can also be created in agriculture by a shift
from traditional food crops such as wheat and rice to commercial crops such as sugar,
cotton, vegetables, and flowers, which require higher labor input and generate far higher
incomes per unit of land cultivated, and by promotion of downstream processing industries,
agri-service and food distribution businesses linked to these commercial crops. Cotton,
for example, creates employment in spinning mills, textile factories, and garment
production units.
A study of Pune District in Maharashtra, India by the
Agricultural Finance Corporation strongly supports the Commissions findings. The
study concluded that an additional 750,000 jobs could be created in this single district
by an agriculture-led strategy. If extrapolated over Indias nearly 400 districts,
the total employment potential would far exceed ICPFs estimate of 100 million jobs.
Since 1990, many of the ICPF strategies have been successfully implemented in Pune. The
area under horticulture crops in the district has been expanded from 125,000 to 1.5
million acres, which is 20% of the increase projected in ICPFs report for the whole
of India.
Additional employment generation in agriculture can also be a
highly effective strategy in many other developing countries with relatively low crop
productivity and agro-industrial development. If widely applied, an agriculture-led growth
strategy could generate hundreds of millions of additional jobs in developing countries on
the farm and in agri-businesses and in other sectors of the economy that benefit from
higher rural purchasing power.
Although concern over rising levels of unemployment loomed large
in the minds of Western economists through much of the 1990s, demographic trends indicate
that in future developed nations will face a shortage of labor, rather than a shortage of
job opportunities. Worldwide the rate of population growth is ebbing. Although by the year
2050, there likely will be 9 billion people on the planet, demographers predict the
population will level off at this point, perhaps even decline. In the last few years,
worldwide population growth rates and fertility have dropped faster than anyone projected.
For all intents and purposes, the developed world has stopped
growing. In North America, Europe and Japan birthrates have been steadily declining for
the past decade; in some countries, birthrates are too low to even sustain current
population size. Family size in Mexico has dropped from seven children to just 2.5, below
the U.S. average of 2.71. In Italy and Spain, women now average 1.17 babies. In 1997,
Italy became the first nation in history to have more people over the age of 60 than under
age 20. The Italian population is actually shrinking. Greece, Spain, France and Germany
will soon face the same situation. Today, the fertility rate exceeds the replacement rate
in only three of the 23 richest countries in the world.
A UN study released in March 2000 estimates that the 15 nation
European Community would have to accept 150 million new immigrants over the next 25 years
in order to maintain present levels of working and tax-paying population. Though
immigration on such a massive scale is unlikely, this trend will soon eradicate
unemployment within developed nations and generate increasing opportunities for employment
growth among developing nations.
Despite surging immigration, the labor force in the United
States, Europe and Canada is not growing quickly enough to meet demand for workers, a
trend line that will continue well into the new millennium. As US baby boomers retire or
reduce their work hours, there will not be enough younger workers to replace them. By
2013, labor-force growth in the United States will be zero. These demographic trends are
already resulting in labor shortages in a number of developed countries.
The current concern in Japan regarding rising levels of
unemployment is one of the ironies of the global employment context resulting from a very
temporary, short term restructuring of the Japanese political and economic system that is
now underway. In the mid-term, government projections indicate that Japan will face acute
labor shortages. As a consequence of an aging population and declining birth rate, the
United Nations estimates that Japan would need to admit 600,000 immigrants annually for
the next 50 years in order to maintain the size of its working population at the 1995
level. In the absence of increased immigration, the size of the workforce would decline
from the current level of 127 million to 105 million by 2050, placing an inordinate burden
on a shrinking workforce to support an increasing population of retirees. The aging of the
Japanese population will create increasing opportunities for younger nations to create
jobs to fill this shortage of workers.
Preparatory to the Summit, research should be undertaken to
quantify the impact of demographic changes on the complexion of the global workforce over
the next half century. This will help highlight the underlying social forces that will
generate new opportunities in the coming decades.
In the early 1990s, there was a widespread belief in most
industrial nations that the increased deployment of technology would lead to a prolonged
and, perhaps, permanent era of jobless growth, an increasing shortage of employment
opportunities, and even what was metaphorically termed by one author the end of
work. In retrospect, it is clear that the rise in unemployment rates at that time
was the temporary result of a combination of transient factors. The end of the Cold War,
which led to a 35% reduction in global military spending, brought on an economic recession
as large, defense-related industries struggled to refocus their businesses on civilian
markets. This was coupled with a large increase in the number of women entering the
workforce, higher rates of immigration from developing countries, and downsizing of major
corporations.
There is now ample evidence to conclude that what first appeared
to be a long-term or even permanent trend among industrialized countries was actually a
short-term adjustment which is already well on its way to reversing itself. In fact,
present indication suggest that the long-term prognosis is for an increasing shortage of
workers in the industrialized world.
With unemployment rates at a 30-year low in the USA, many jobs
remain unfilled, particularly those requiring specific skills. The unemployment rate for
engineers is 1.6 percent, for computer programmers 1.4 percent, and for computer
scientists 1.2 percent. Recruiting workers is difficult, but retaining them is becoming an
even greater challenge in Europe and the United States.
A 1999 study conducted for the National Tooling & Machining
Association (NTMA) in the USA, a group of 2500 manufacturing companies, found that the No.
1 problem faced by American manufacturing companies was the growing shortage of skilled
workers to fill jobs in industry. Although skilled toolmakers and machinists commonly earn
upwards of $40,000 to 50,000 a year, many of these companies are being forced to make huge
investments in automated equipment or to subcontract work to overseas firms due to the
scarcity of job applicants. High skill jobs are not the only ones facing labor shortages
in the USA. The Associated Builders and Contractors estimates that it would take 240,000
workers to ease the current skilled-labor shortage in the construction industry.
Although labor and, especially, skilled labor shortages are more
prominent in the most developed nations, it would be a mistake to assume that they do not
exist in developing countries as well. The explosive growth of population in these
countries has no doubt resulted in an imbalance between population and job growth, but
here too there are signs that the gap is narrowing and labor shortages have emerged in
specific regions of many countries. This is even the case is some relatively low income
developing countries such as India in states such as Punjab and Maharashtra where
commercial agriculture has advanced rapidly. Farmers and businesses in these and other
areas report an acute shortage of both farm and factory workers.
Surveys should be conducted preparatory to the Summit to document
the skill shortages in different countries and sectors of the economy, so that specific
strategies can be formulated to fill these gaps.
The best documented and most celebrated example of the emerging
skill shortage has been in fields related to information technology. McKinsey &
Company, one the worlds largest management consulting firms, estimates that global
demand for information technology will exceed $1.9 trillion by 2008, including $1 trillion
for I.T. services, $700 billion for software products, and $142 billion for I.T.-enabled
services. For the past two decades, worldwide growth of the computer industry has
outstripped even the very rapid increase in the availability of trained workers. Annual
studies in the USA routinely assess the shortfall of information technology professionals
at upwards of 200,000. Between escalating salaries and lost business opportunities, the
labor shortage in Silicon Valley alone is costing technology companies an estimated $4
billion a year. Similar shortages of high tech workers exist in most industrialized
nations.
In one of the largest, most comprehensive studies yet undertaken,
the Information Technology Association of America (ITAA) examined demand over the boarder
category of information technology workers and found that the IT workforce and the current
IT skill shortage are both far larger than previously estimated. ITAA estimates that the
US currently employs 10 million information technology workers and will create 1.6 million
new positions in this category during year 2000 alone. Of these 1.6 million new jobs,
approximately 800,000 or 50% will remain unfilled due to the growing shortage of skilled
workers.[18]
The greatest need for IT workers is in the largest segment of the economy--smaller non-IT
firms. Greatest demand is for people with both technical and non-technical skills. By one
estimate the I.T. skill shortage in Europe is about 20% lower than in the USA.
The achievement of Indias software industry serves as one
index of this growing domestic shortage in developed nations. Indias software
industry, which exports software services primarily to the USA, Western Europe and Japan,
has increased from a mere $10 million in 1984 to $8 billion in 1999. A study by McKinsey
forecasts that India's software industry could generate $87 billion in revenues and employ
2.2 million people before the end of this decade.
For many years, Western nations responded to the increasing
shortage of high technology workers by increasing levels of immigration and raising quotas
for the temporary employment of skilled foreign workers. Over the past five years, the USA
increased the quota of new H-1 visas allotted annually from 65,000 to 115,000. After
doubling the allotment, the entire quota for year 2000 was filled within the first half of
the year. Businesses are requesting that the annual quota be increased to 200,000 and a
Congressional Committee has recommended abolishing the quota entirely for the next three
years. Many of these temporary workers eventually obtain green cards for permanent
residence in the USA. One result of this trend is an astonishingly large number of
immigrants providing professional services. By one estimate, 38% of US doctors and 12% of
all US scientists are of Indian origin.
High domestic costs and public sensitivity in developed nations
regarding the increased immigration has generated another trend that can dramatically
expand employment generation in developing countries. Increasingly, companies in developed
countries are looking to outsource service sector jobs to workers in developing countries.
The prospects in this field are not only at the high end of the technology spectrum where
a limited number of highly educated software engineers can earn salaries nearly equivalent
to levels pertaining the West. Exciting opportunities are opening up across a broad
spectrum of Information Technology-enabled services, cross-border businesses that utilize
information technology to provide services to customers around the world.[19]
This field is not entirely new. For years, several leading US
banks and insurance companies have been outsourcing and out-locating human resources,
customer service, telemarketing, back office and administrative operations to firms in the
Caribbean and Ireland. The explosive growth of the Internet has drastically reduced the
time, cost and effort required to do so, thereby opening up this field to many more
companies and to countries around the world.
The category of I.T. enabled services includes a range of rapidly
emerging opportunities:
·
Call Centers -- State-of-the-art telecommunications
technology makes it possible to provide 24 hour telephone contact for telemarketing and
customer support from facilities located anywhere in the world. US-based
Convergys provides billing and customer
care services to other companies through 30 call centers employing 30,000 people.
GE Capital, a division of the giant American conglomerate General
Electric, operates a facility near New Delhi where Indian graduates place telephone calls
to GEs credit card customers in the USA.
·
Medical Transcription Pressure to reduce the cost
of medical care in the USA have created an overseas market for transcription services.
Digital recordings of physicians patient case notes are sent over the Internet to
companies in India and the Philippines, where the recordings are processed into text form
and sent back electronically to update medical records. During 1999-2000 alone,
approximately 70 new companies were established in India to provide this service.
·
Back Office Operations & Accounting Services
All types of data entry, analysis and processing are now being outsourced to developing
countries by airlines, book and magazine publishers, universities and other institutions.
British Airways and Singapore Airways are the first of several airlines planning to
process ticket information and frequent flyer records at facilities in India. America
On-Line now
has 600
Filipino customer-service employees who answer 10,000-12,000 e-mail technical and billing
enquiries a day, most of them from AOLs U.S. customers.
·
Insurance Claims Processing -- Large insurance companies,
which receive millions of claims that need to be processed according to clearly defined
rules, are also outsourcing this work to college graduates and medical professions in
countries with lower labor costs.
·
Technical Support
The large US engineering firm, Bechtel, operates an engineering design center in
Bangalore which employs 500 people to support the firms customers worldwide over
telecom and data networks.
·
Legal Research -- Legal firms in the West have started to
outsource legal research to organizations that have a large English-speaking, lower-priced
workforce of trained lawyers. This business includes creation of databases of existing
legal records, indexes on cases, tracking new documents and incorporation into the
database.
·
Content Development/Animation Computer animation is
expected to be a $35 billion global industry by 2001. The development of computerized
animation systems has dramatically reduced the cost of creating animated video material
for full-length motion pictures, medical and other types of training, educational
documentaries and CDs, games, and advertisements. The high labor content involved in using
the software provides ample opportunities for developing countries.
·
Payroll & Human Resources Payroll processing
and other human resource functions are also being out-located. The large oil company,
Caltex, operates from Manila a shared human resource center for its offices in five
regional countries.
The outsourcing and out-location of service sector jobs is still
in its infancy, so it is difficult to project the full magnitude of the potential.
However, it can be reasoned that for every new job created in the software industry, 50
or 100 jobs can be created by application of information technology in other fields. If
this is the case, this single trend could generate fresh employment opportunities for as
many as 100 million people worldwide during the coming decade.
At each stage of social development, different fields of activity
generate the impetus for further growth. The most successful employment strategies will be
those that accelerate growth of fields which are already expanding rapidly. For instance,
although the entire service sector category is growing rapidly in developed nations,
certain service activities are leading the charge. Emphasis on removing obstacles and
stimulating faster expansion in these fields will be most effective in stimulating
employment growth.
Table 2 shows the growth rates for the fastest growing service
industries in the USA over the past quarter century. Table 3 gives the projected growth
rates of specific occupations in the USA from 1994 to 2005.
Lists of fast growing sectors and occupations should be compiled
for every country, so that educational and training courses can be refocused on those with
the largest potential, not only within the country but in other countries that can be
serviced from overseas.
Table 2: Fast growing sectors of
the US economy
Sector |
Growth 1970-96 |
Business services
|
476% |
Financial services
|
104% |
Entertainment & recreation
|
233% |
Health services
|
278% |
Social services
|
275% |
Legal services
|
204% |
Automobile services
|
172% |
Table 3: Fastest growing
occupations in US
High Growth
1994-2005 |
|
§
Systems analysts |
|
§
Home health aides |
|
§
Guards |
|
§
Teacher aides & educational
assistants |
|
§
Personal & home care aides |
|
§
Teachers, special education |
|
§
Computer engineers |
|
§
Correction officers |
|
§
Adjustment clerks |
|
§
Amusement/recreation attendants |
|
§
Residential counselors |
|
§
Human services workers |
|
§
Medical assistants |
|
§
Bill and account collectors |
|
§
Securities & financial services
sales workers |
|
Although poverty has plagued large sections of humanity
throughout history, the problem of unemployment is a relatively recent phenomenon. Prior
to the industrial revolution and development of the factory system, relatively few people
held jobs. For the vast majority, work meant livelihood rather than
employment. That livelihood consisted of the multiple tasks individuals performed, whether
for themselves or for others, that supported a subsistence-level existence for their
families.
The introduction of the factory system transformed our concept of
work from livelihood to employment or job. The institutionalization of work as jobs meant
that most people became fully dependent on one external source of employment for their
entire livelihood. It forged a division between the role of men as paid career employees
and women as unpaid housewives. The extension of this same model to all types of white
collar work raised enormously the cost of expanding the workforce, since each additional
worker required a place and facilities to work outside the home. In recent years the high
economic and social costs of this model have created strong pressure on business to reduce
the number of institutional jobs.
This has partly been achieved by automation of work. But more
significantly, the advent of advanced communication technology is leading to a reverse
trend from institutionalized jobs back to personal livelihood. Technology and changing
organizational cultures are enabling more people to work wherever they choose to live. In
the USA, a rapidly growing number of people are engaged in telecommuting, employment in
the home linked to the institutional workplace over telephone and internet networks.
A study by AT&T estimates that 19.6 million Americans carry
on paid work from their home at least one day per month, compared with 3.4 million in
1990. A report by FIND/SVP estimates that three-quarters of these US telecommuters utilize
a computer. The average telecommuter is over 40 years of age, earns $51,000 a year and
works about 19 hours a week from the house. Seventy-six percent of them are married and
46% have children. Other studies indicate that this trend is accelerating rapidly and
could effect a large portion of the US population. The Gartner Group predicts that there
will be 37 million US telecommuters by 2003. Telecommuting is also growing in many areas
of Europe, Canada and the Pacific Rim.
Within the next decade, it is likely that more than half the US
workforce will be virtual, telecommuting from home or regional office co-ops
shared by several companies. Virtual partnerships between independent contractors also
will flourish, as sophisticated telecommunications capabilities enable people to link-up
with anyone, anywhere. As this trend accelerates, jobs will follow individuals, not the
other way around. Since telecommuting can be done from virtually any place in the world
over the internet, this trend will open up vast opportunities for creation of additional
service sector jobs in developing countries.
Far-sighted thinkers such as Harlan Cleveland have been stating
for decades that job or employment-based societies will eventually give place to societies
in which individuals are politically, socially and economically free to choose
personal livelihoods suited to their own capacities and interests. Formal jobs as we know
them will give way to more flexible work structures. In other words, the evolution of
society from individual livelihood to organized employment is coming back a full turn of
the wheel, or rather of the spiral; for it is not coming back to where it started but
rather to a far higher evolutionary position in which individuals will have maximum
security and maximum freedom. An inevitable stage in the transition to this
utopian-sounding achievement is a period in which society generates far more jobs than
there are people to fill them. When that occurs, the status and function of job will give
way to a more flexible and humane organization of work. Trends now emerging on the global
horizon suggest that the time for this accomplishment may be very much sooner than anyone
presently believes possible.
Having established the theoretical possibility of creating 500
million jobs and having identified some of the major trends and opportunities that support
accomplishment of this goal at the present time, the Summit must turn to the task of
identifying specific recommendations for implementation by participating countries and
agencies. In formulating recommendations several criteria should be kept in mind.
In formulating recommendations to achieve the global goal of
creating 500 million additional employment opportunities, the Summit will have to address
a very wide range of initial conditions in countries at different stages of development
and with different historic, geographic, demographic and political profiles. One possible
approach is to prepare sets of recommendations appropriate for different groups of
countriesdeveloped nations, transition economies, newly industrialized nations and
other developing countries. Of course, country-to-country differences would still require
further differentiation: even between the relatively homogeneous European Community,
policies and performance vary to widely to cover all cases with a common formula.
This paper does not take this approach. Instead it focuses on
common underlying factors or principles that influence employment generation in every
country, regardless of its level of development and specific local context. It points to
basic social forces that can be activated by every country to accelerate the process of
development and employment generation. It then illustrates how some of these principles
can be applied in different contexts. If the Summit were to follow this approach, the
preparatory task would be to formulate a complete list of such strategies, illustrate how
specific countries are currently performing, and assess the potential benefits of raising
performance on each strategy. It could further develop the specificity of the
recommendations by examining the application of each principle to different levels of
development and then leave it to each individual country to identify the strategies most
appropriate for its context and the level of implementation possible in the local context.
In essence, the Summit would provide a set of tools that policy-makers and other agencies
can wield to achieve full employment.
The Summit will be most effective if it eschews out-dated notions
of development strategy that have proven ineffective in the past. The following principles
can serve as useful guidelines:
1.
Welfare and public works programs may
serve to alleviate the short-term distress resulting from inadequate job opportunities,
but cannot serve as an effective basis for permanent solutions.
2.
Foreign Aid is not a viable recipe for
meeting the worlds employment needs. Emphasis on aid and charity should be replaced
by emphasis on investment, empowerment, local initiative and full utilization of all
available social resources within each society.
3.
Subsidies may be effectively employed
under some circumstances as incentives to promote the introduction and spread of new
activities in society, but prolonged subsidization of out-dated modes of production or
employment only postpones the inevitable decline of these activities and diverts
investment of scarce resources in more promising fields.
These recommendations will fall under a variety of different
headings:
1.
Broad strategies that will accelerate
economic development, thereby increasing the rate of employment generation.
2.
Specific strategies to accelerate development
and employment in specific regions, countries and sectors of the economy.
3.
Public policy measures that will shift the
focus of regulations to increase their positive and reduce their negative impact on
employment.
4.
Government programs that will act as
catalysts to accelerate real and permanent job creation in the economy, rather than short
term programs with only temporary impact.
This paper illustrates of few representative types of
recommendations under each of these headings.
In discussing a conceptual framework for employment generation,
we said that employment is a natural outcome of social development and that measures which
accelerate the process of social development can generate large numbers of permanent new
jobs. Global experience over the past five decades has demonstrated the positive
contribution of a wide range of factors that increase the velocity of social transactions
and the rate of social development, including:
1.
Peace: Strategies to promote global
security, regional and domestic stability.
2.
Democracy: Strategies to increase the
practical expressions of political, economic and social freedom in society.
3.
Education: Strategies to increase the
quantity, quality, ease of access and relevance of general and vocational, formal and
non-formal, public and private education at all levels of society in all countries.
4.
Training: Strategies to identify skill
gaps and impart training to expand the availability and upgrade the quality of employable
skills, with special focus on occupations where demand is growing and shortages are
projected.
5.
Information: Strategies to increase
access to and the quality of all types of information relating to human rights,
governmental regulations and programs, business opportunities, markets and prices,
technological advances and applications, financial resources, non-governmental activities,
etc.
6.
Organization: Strategies to upgrade
the productive capacity of all aspects of the social organization in order to support more
rapid development and improve the quality of life.
7.
Telecommunications: Strategies to increase access to and reduce the cost of
telephone and data communications, domestically and internationally, which serve as
essential infrastructure for participation in the emerging global information-based
economy.
8.
Transportation: Strategies to increase
the speed and quality and reduce the cost of all types of transportation for people and
goods, especially road transport in rural areas.
9.
Technology diffusion: Strategies to increase the dissemination and adoption of
improved technologies to expand the range of economic activities and enhance their
quality, productivity and profitability.
10.
Investment & Credit: Strategies
that increase access to capital for investment in productive activities at all levels and
in all fields of economic activity, including micro-credit, hire purchase, leasing,
mortgage, and gold deposit schemes.
The ten categories listed above are representative rather than
exhaustive. Each encompasses a broad field in itself. Many are the subject of intensive
study and initiative by specialized agencies. A selective effort should be made to
identify and concentrate on specific recommendations under these headings that will have
maximum impact on youth employment. Several illustrative examples are given below:
§
Improve quality of pre-school & primary education: The
demand for better quality early childhood education is soaring in both developing and
developed countries, because it is recognized as so important for later academic and
career achievement and because more and more women are becoming working mothers. An
experimental program for early childhood education in South India has demonstrated that
average children can progress academically at least two or three times faster than the
norm prevalent in public schools when student-teacher ratios are reduced from current
levels of 1-60 down to 1-20 or below, the norm in many developed countries. The preschool
student-teacher ratio is currently 3.4 times higher in East Asia and 4.8 times higher in
South Asia than it is in Europe. For primary school, the level in Asia is 50% higher than
in Europe and in Africa it is double the European level.
In order to
deliver quality education to young children, student-teacher ratios should be halved in
most developing countries. Such a change would open up millions of employment
opportunities for educated youth, especially for women, who represent 94% of pre-school
teachers worldwide. Better pre-school and primary education can have an enormous impact on
the overall rate of social development and job creation in the future. Reducing
student-teacher ratios in pre-schools and primary schools by 25-50% would create an
additional 8-15 million jobs worldwide and contribute significantly to improvements in the
quality of primary education, which touches the largest proportion of youth.
[20]
§
Raise minimum standards for education: Most countries have
established mandatory minimum levels of education for their citizens, though the required
level and degree of enforcement vary widely. Among African countries, the range is 4 to 10
years of compulsory education with an average of 7 years. It is eight years in India and
nine in China. By comparison, the compulsory minimum in among developed nations ranges
from 10 years in the USA and 11 in UK to 12 in Belgium and Germany and 13 in Netherlands.
This partially accounts for the very low level of secondary school enrollment in
Sub-Saharan Africa (26%) and South Asia (45%) compared with the world as a whole (60%) and
developed countries (100%).[21]
Higher levels of
education increase productivity, raise personal expectations and consumption, and generate
additional jobs in education as well as other fields. Lack of qualifications and
inadequate and out-dated skills commonly characterize the long-term unemployed. There is a
strong positive correlation between higher education and higher incomes. The employment
rate for college graduates in the United
States is 75 percent versus 48 percent for high school
dropouts; and at the height of the last recession, 3.2 percent of college graduates
were unemployed compared to 11.4 percent of high school drop-outs. Only 57 percent of 18
year olds in OECD countries are pursuing formal education. The Japanese built their highly
competitive workforce by raising the educational attainments of the bottom half of its
primary and secondary school population.
Raising the minimum compulsory level of education, as several European countries
have recently done, increases the qualifications of new job seekers, increases the number
of jobs in teaching, and postpones the entrance of young people into the work force.
Raising the statutory and enforced minimum by two years in every country could generate
tens of millions of additional jobs worldwide and prepare todays students for more
demanding, productive and attractive employment opportunities in the coming decades. This
strategy is as appropriate to developed countries with comparatively high minimum levels
as it is for developing countries with low levels, because in each case the demands for
more educated workers continue to increase rapidly.
§
Funding further investment in education: While every
country will concede the value of upgrading the quality and quantity of education, not all
will agree that they have the financial capacity to do so. Public investment in education
varies widely from country to country. Among the advanced industrial countries, it ranges
from a low of under 4% up to a high of nearly 7% of GDP. Among developing countries, the
range is from under 2% to a high of over 8%. For
most countries in both categories, there is need and strong justification for increasing
total investment in education. For many of these countries, the best trade off will be to
redirect resources from defense spending to education. In addition to increasing total
allocations for education, there is also scope for increasing utilization of allocated
funds in some countries. At the end of every fiscal year, education departments in India
scramble to find ways to spend allocated funds that have not been utilized and will
otherwise have to be returned to the treasury. Policy can be formulated to channel all of
these unutilized funds into pre-approved programs designed to upgrade quality of
education, such as investment in computers.
§
Entrepreneurial opportunities: Over the past three years, the Internet has become
an important means for recruitment of new employees. By the end of 1999, 10% of jobs in
the USA were being filled by means of on-line recruitment. The internet is a
cost-effective system for enabling employers and job seekers to match needs and
capabilities across long distances. A similar system can be developed to promote
entrepreneurial activities by young adults. The system should provide reliable information
on attractive business opportunities together with information on the market, technology,
financial, human and organizational resources needed for success. Databases can be
compiled at the national level with the participation of business associations,
universities and government agencies. Increasing the rate of new business start-ups can
create tens of millions of additional jobs.
§
Information broadcasting:
In most developing countries, information about development and employment
opportunities spreads slowly and inaccurately to other people and regions for which it
would be very meaningful. Cashew farmers in one Indian village obtain yields ten times
higher than farmers in villages just ten miles away, because reliable information about
their highly successful cultivation practices never spreads beyond the local area. Similar
examples can be drawn from every field of economic activity. Government extension
services, university outreach programs, business associations and NGOs fill in the
information gap to a limited extent, but leave many important types of commercially useful
information and many geographic poorly covered. Special agencies can be established to
conduct studies to identify these information gaps and unpublicized success stories, to
formulate reliable information packages and to project them to the population through a
variety of mechanisms.
§
Innovate Organizationally: Creation of new types of social systems and organizations can
create markets and jobs in many ways. Significant
improvements in the competitiveness and growth of businesses in developing countries can
be achieved by raising organizational efficiency and dynamism through better internal
management practices and better commercial systems in the marketplace. The establishment
of manned pay telephone booths in India during the 1980s is an example of a highly
successful organizational innovation that has generated self-employment for tens of
thousands of people and made telephone services readily available to the masses that
previously lacked access. The same system has subsequently been expanded to provide fax
and internet services.
A comprehensive study
of successful social systems and institutions in both developing and developed countries
should be conducted to identify those that can be transferred and adapted to local
conditions in order to accelerate development in each field of activity.
§
Computerization: The
importance of computer technology for communication, education and commercial activities
is now widely recognized, resulting in a their rapid proliferation in business,
government, schools and homes. Computers provide access to enormous amounts of information
and dramatically increase individual productivity. In earlier decades, there was
widespread concern that the spread of computers would significantly, perhaps even
drastically, reduce employment opportunities. Recent experience indicates that just the
opposite is true. While the introduction of computerized robots in a factory or ATM
machines outside a bank, may in fact eliminate jobs that were previously carried out by
people, this direct impact seems to be more than offset by the catalytic effect of
computerization, enhancing the speed and increasing effectiveness of any activity and,
thereby, promoting both quantitative expansion and qualitative development of the
activity. In this sense, computerization is a highly effective means for increasing the
velocity of social transactions and the rate of employment generation in society. Studies
of the US automobile industry have shown that the impact of automobile technology on
employment extend far beyond direct employment in car manufacturing companies. The
industry has contributed to tremendous expansion of virtually every other industry,
including tourism, hotels, restaurants, amusement parks, whole and retail trade,
manufacturing and agriculture. Thus, about 9 percent
of the entire US workforce is employed in occupations directly related to automotive
manufacture, sales and services, road construction and maintenance, and transport of
freight and passengers.
While much more research
is needed to accurately assess the multiplier effect of computerization on employment in
the wider economy, efforts to accelerate the proliferation of this technology can make a
significant contribution to employment generation.
§
Complementary or local currencies: When we hear the word
currency, almost all of us think of the forms of money created by national governments or
central banks. However, there are many other types of currency in circulation that serve a
similar purpose yet are created by local communities, both public and private, rather than
central governments. By recent count there were nearly 3000 such currencies being utilized
in countries around the world. We refer to them as complementary currencies because in
most instances they serve a complementary rather than competitive function alongside the
national currency, filling in where the national monetary system is not fully effective.
Every society possesses a wide range of resources that are not fully utilized under normal
conditions because there is no demand for these resources in terms of the national
currency, i.e. no one has the money to pay for them. Complementary currencies give value
to resources that the national money system does not assign value to, such as the
knowledge and skill of most people in retirement. It is an extension of the monetary
system that can tap unutilized social resources and has the potential to grow to 10 or 20%
of the total present money supply.
There are over 2,700 complementary
currency systems operational in the world today, most of which have sprung up to generate
local
work in high unemployment areas. In the US, 39
communities have followed Ithaca, NY, in creating their own paper currency, redeemable
only within the community. More than 400 communities in the UK have started their own
electronic complementary currency system called the Local Exchange Trading System (LETS).
Similarly, in Germany they are called Tauschring, in France
Grains de Sel, and several hundred such grassroots
projects are now operational in these countries as well. All of these systems will be
explained in detail later. These initiatives are often treated as marginal curiosities by
mainstream media and academic circles. However, in New Zealand, Australia, Scotland and 30
different US states, regional governments have been funding the start-up of such systems
because they have proven effective in solving local employment problems. In New Zealand,
the Central Bank has discovered that complementary currencies actually
help to control the overall inflation in the
national currency.[22]
A Complementary Scenario
Any community of people with confidence in themselves and each other can create
money of this type. While most of these currencies are utilized on a local and modest
scale, the same principle could be applied to partially fund very large-scale activities
as well. A quarter century ago the Garland Canal plan to link the seven major rivers of
India was seriously promoted as a means to dramatically accelerate national development.
The plan would have created tens of billions of dollars of additional GDP for the country
from agriculture, power generation and cheap inland transport, but Government of India
never took it up because it perceived that the cost in excess of $15 billion was far
beyond its means. The Government could consider a possible scenario for financing the
project by a combination of traditional and complementary currency. The government agrees
to sell lease rights to public lands situated along the canal at five times
their previous market value (their value enhanced by access to water transport and
irrigation) in exchange for materials and services needed to build the canal and to raise
sufficient cash to cover the interest charges on the bonds. It is projected that the canal
will stimulate a 10% increase in the countrys GDP and contribute an addition 10% to
the Governments annual tax revenues, sufficient to retire the bonds within the ten
years. Rural workers living along the route of the canal can offer their unutilized labor
for the massive construction effort. All those who contribute labor, materials or land for
the project can be partially compensated in the form of complementary currencies
redeemable in terms of irrigation water, power and water transport rights on the canal.
The project creates 10 million new jobs and $30 billion of additional GDP. The increased
demand for cement and steel enables the cement and steel industries to utilize their
underutilized capacity. Lands adjacent to the canal are converted from dry into irrigated
fields with twenty times greater value. Subsidiary activities associated with the project
generate greater production even before the canal is operational. This development is made
possible by the countrys faith in its own future.
§
Micro-financing: Micro finance agencies have proven
extremely effective in extending credit to the poor, especially to women, for
self-employment and commercial activities. Survey responses from 925 out of the more than
1500 micro-credit agencies operating around the world in 1999 revealed that they are
currently serving more than 22 million client families worldwide, of which 95% are in
developing countries. More than 50% of these clients are from families living below the
poverty line. Growth of micro-financing has been very rapid over the past two decades. The
agencies surveyed project that a more than 300% growth in terms of families being served
by year 2005. Intensive efforts should be taken to extend successful practices in
micro-financing, not only in developing countries but among poorer communities in
developed countries as well.
India has
recently taken a pioneering initiative to mainstream and spread micro-credit that should
be applicable to many other countries. In 1999 the Reserve Bank of India ser up a Micro
Credit Special Cell to suggest measures to the commercial banks for increasing the flow of
micro credit. Presently small borrowers (less than $500) represent 89% of the commercial
bank loans but only 12.5% of the value of loans outstanding. Segregating small borrowers
into new entities can dramatically increase the efficiency of the commercial banks while
increasing access to small borrowers. He intention is to channel more of these funds from
the banks through micro credit subsidiaries, NGOs, self-help groups and other intermediary
organizations. In 2000, the Government has targeted to extend support to 100,000 self-help
groups throughout the country.[23]
§
Bank financing: In most developing countries, the majority
of employment opportunities are generated in the informal sector, but commercial banks are
poorly equipped and disinclined to lend to small clients who lack immovable assets to
secure their loans. Non-banking financial institutions (NBFIs) providing consumer credit
and industrial leasing may fill this void to some extent through their greater capacity to
effectively deal with small borrowers, but often the NBFIs also have restricted access to
bank finance. In India, for example, 60% of national savings is generated by businesses in
the informal sector, including hotels, restaurants, wholesale and retail businesses, yet
they have very little access to bank funds. Central Bank restrictions also limit
commercial bank lending to NBFIs. Thus, growth of employment in the informal sector is
limited by lack of access to institutional resources. Stricter government regulation of
the NBFIs would enable banks to more accurately access their credit-worthiness, increasing
their access to funds and their role as an effective intermediary between the banks and
the informal sector.
§
Analyze job impact of government
policies:
Almost every
government policy has a direct or indirect impact on employment. Often the relationship is
not recognized or intended. An analysis of the impact of major public policies on
employment at the local, state and national level can result in avoidance or removal of
significant legislative and administrative road-blocks to job growth. As environmental
impact assessments are now routinely required before new policies are put into effect,
governments should require employment impact assessments for new policy initiatives
prior to adoption. The purpose of these assessments should be to reduce government
restrictions on job creation, rather than to impose greater restrictions in order to
protect existing jobs, an approach that retards social development by artificially
preserving the status quo.
§
Voluntary part-timism: Increasing the flexibility of
working hours will serve the interests of both businesses and workers. Encouraging
voluntary part-timism by removing the artificial barriers to job-sharing created by
employment laws, social security provisions, administrative procedures and trade unions
would raise the morale and productivity of those who prefer to work less, while creating
openings for many who are now without jobs. Proportionately reducing working hours and
salaries can spread the existing work more evenly over more people. Evidence suggests that
reduced working time can raise productivity significantly. Work or job sharing is not an
ultimate answer in itself, but it can have beneficial short term impact, allowing time for
longer term measures to take effect. As a minimum, governments should remove the
artificial barriers to job-sharing created by employment laws, administrative procedures
and trade unions. Social security tax systems should also be modified to remove the
in-built bias that increases the taxes of those who hold multiple, part-time jobs, rather
than one full-time job. Such constraints limit part-time jobs to around 10 percent of the
total in Belgium, France, Italy and Spain compared to around 25 percent in Britain and
Denmark.
§
Modify tax policies: The
present income and payroll tax system in most countries raises the real cost of labor
relative to capital, and thereby discourages job creation. It heavily taxes people for
working, which indirectly raises the cost of labor and reduces the number of jobs. At the
same time the system provides investment and depreciation incentives that encourage
industry to shift from labor intensive to capital intensive modes of production. Much of
the shift from labor to capital may not be economically justified were it not for the
in-built bias in this system. Tariff policies also influence employment levels, both
domestically and internationally. Low levels of taxation on the depletion of non-renewable
energy resources in countries such as USA is another distorting influence that makes
machine-driven activity more cost effective than it would otherwise be.
§
Industrial policies: The
attempts of government to promote or restrict the development of specific industries can
have unintended negative impact, even on growth and employment of the very sectors they
are intended to support. Often such policies are at least partially motivated by efforts
to raise government revenues without full regard for their impact on employment.
In India, the textile industry accounts for 16% of GDP, 30% of
exports, and 40% of industrial employmentabout 20 million direct jobs in factories
not including indirect employment in trade and transportplus on-farm employment
cultivating 20 million hectares of cotton. As important as this sector is, its growth is
constrained by government policies and bureaucratic bottlenecks. Tax policies and
licensing restrictions imposed to promote development of small scale textile units retard
reinvestment and modernization of the large mills, while the tax exemption for small units
prevents the growth of these businesses into units large enough to qualify for bank
finance for investment in more sophisticated equipment. Many countries have successfully
utilized industrial policy to promote development of specific industries. Unfortunately,
experience shows that once partiality is shown to an industry, it is very difficult for
government to withdraw the privileges when they are no longer necessary or even conducive
to economic development. While industrial policy may be quite helpful for stimulating
growth of nascent industries, it often used to sustain or subsidize industries that are
declining or uncompetitive, thereby reducing the incentive for business to adjust to
changing economic realities. Every country should re-evaluate policies that currently
support specific industries to assess their impact on employment growth.
§
Studies of agri-business potential: Developing countries
with a large section of the population still engaged in agriculture should conduct studies
on the model of ICPFs Prosperity 2000 to identify opportunities to stimulate
employment generation through higher crop productivity and links to downstream
agro-industries and agri-businesses. Special emphasis should be placed on development of
rural infrastructure for storage, cooling, processing and marketing capabilities to
increase the value-added from agricultural crops and extend the reach of marketing
activities.
§
Raising agricultural productivity: Raising farm output has
a direct effect on rural employment and incomes in the poorer developing countries where
most agricultural harvesting and handling operations are performed by manual labor. It
also has a corresponding multiplier effect on non-farm employment in processing, transport
and distribution, which in countries such as India can be approximately one for one or
even greater. A range of proven strategies can be utilized to raise agricultural
productivity on wide variety of crops.
Soil testing and soil enhancement for micro nutrients that are not replenished by
conventional chemical fertilizers has been shown to double or triple farm yields and
income under a variety of conditions in India. The quality of soil testing facilities may
need to be upgraded to perform these tests. A detailed program has been drawn up and
demonstrated in India by California Agricultural Consulting Services.
Government agricultural extension services, research stations and agricultural
colleges in poorer developing countries often play a limited role in dissemination of best
practices because of lack of clear targets or administrative discipline. These agencies
can be required to demonstrate achievement of specific targets for higher yields and
profitability on farmers fields rather than under non-commercial conditions on
government property.
§
Farm Schools to create agricultural entrepreneurs: In many
developing countries, agriculture is a low prestige occupation. Even in areas where the
average income earned in agriculture far exceeds the average salary level in government
and the private sector, educated youth are choosing in large numbers the prestige of
salaried employment in urban areas to managing the family farm. Agricultural colleges
often become unwitting accomplishes by educating rural youth for employment as
agricultural extension officers and bank officials. Thus, the best talent from the rural
areas is being continuously drawn off from the sector which offers them and the nation the
greatest opportunities. For example, in India cultivation of horticulture crops on a small
5 acre holding can earn a net income of $5000-10,000 per annum, while the salary of an
agricultural graduate in a government or corporate job averages less than $2000.
To counter this
tendency, programs can be formulated to actively encourage rural youth to become
agricultural entrepreneurs. Agricultural colleges and universities can give preference for
admission of students seeking to become professional farmers. Farm schools can be
established in rural areas on lands leased out from farmers to provide on site practical
training for farmers on advanced agricultural methods. These schools can be financially
self-sufficient since they will produce profitable commercial crops as part of the
instruction process.
§
Public policy: Developing countries should draw up
comprehensive strategies and policies to promote and accelerate the development of
Information Technology-Enabled Industries. Areas requiring special attention include cyber
laws to enable e-commerce to flourish and protect consumers, deregulation of the telecom
industry to spread access to internet connectivity and attract private investment,
investment policies related to foreign acquisitions by firms in developing countries,
reform of capital markets to encourage venture capital funds and promote new enterprises
in this field, procedures to reduce bureaucratic hurdles, revision of labor laws to
increase flexibility, tax policies to encourage rapid growth of this sector, elimination
of tariff barriers on computer equipment and peripherals, special entrepreneurial training
programs, and establishment of technology parks fully equipped with broadband, satellite
telecom linkages to foreign markets.[24]
§
Rapid population growth and urbanization have severely aggravated
housing shortages and pushed up real estate prices in countries around the world. In
India, for example, the current housing shortage is estimated at around 40 million units.
Even this enormous figure does not fully take into account the millions of people who live
in substandard, crowed, unhygienic conditions in urban slums. Housing is a basic human
need and powerful motivating force for development. The aspiration to own a home is shared
by people in every country and at all levels of society.
Expansion of
this industry can generate very large numbers of jobs in developing countries. Inadequate
financing is often cited as the major reason for inadequate growth in this sector. Yet,
housing is also one of the few assets that almost always appreciate in value over time,
providing reliable security for lending to even highly-leveraged home owners. There is
enormous scope for increasing both domestic and foreign investment in this sector by
modifying government regulations that presently restrict or discourage such investments.
The securitization of housing mortgages that began in the USA and has spread to many
countries is an example of a financial innovation that can vastly expand investment in
this housing. Micro-lending and complementary currencies can also be very effective means
to harness locally available material and human resources to expand housing. A study
should be undertaken of successful policies and programs to promote housing development in
different countries, so that appropriate packages of recommendations can be presented at
the Summit.
The Summit may succeed in drawing up a very extensive list of
potentially beneficial strategies that can be implemented locally, nationally and
internationally to generate 500 million additional employment opportunities or even more.
However, critical decisions will still need to be taken to determine which strategies can
be implemented most successfully in each country and region of the country at any given
time. Therefore, the Summit should also present an overall strategy that will help
decision-makers determine the most appropriate package of strategies for their specific
area, the priority to be given to each, and the sequence of their implementation. This is
what we refer to as the strategy of strategies.
In the course of its development, every society passes through a
progression of stages and sub-stages from less to more advanced levels. The early stages
form the essential foundation and basis for greater, more sophisticated developments. This
principle is true both for development of the society as a whole as well as for
development of specific geographic regions and fields of activity within the society.
This progression can be illustrated in the field of agriculture,
which has passed through a natural evolution from rain-fed subsistence cultivation to
irrigation by river water, man-made irrigation tanks, and wells to tap groundwater
resources. These advances have been followed by introduction of various levels of
mechanization, as well as hybrid seeds and fertilizers to increase soil fertility and
plant productivity. Sprinkler and drip irrigation are later innovations that have
dramatically increased the productivity of water resources in agriculture. Biotechnology
is now being applied to advance agricultural development even further. This progressive
development of on-farm practices has been made possible by and has stimulated
corresponding advances in related fields. As agriculture became more productive,
infrastructure facilities such as roads, storage and cold storage facilities, soil labs,
veterinary and extension services, weather forecasting, market forecasting, research
institutes, training and educational programs have been expanded and upgraded. Increasing
farm productivity has led to the introduction of commercial crops, processing plants,
links to downstream industries and to global export markets.
A similar gradation exists in every field. Indias recent
accomplishments in the software industry are based on a long series of prior stages,
including the education of large numbers of English speaking college graduates; the
opening of world class technology and engineering universities in the 1950s that generated
a huge surplus of engineers; the sending of large numbers of people for higher education
and employment in the USA and UK, where they were exposed to the latest technology and
demonstrated a high level of competence in this field; establishment of firms to place
Indian software professionals on temporary work assignment in the USA; the return of
well-educated and experienced Indians from abroad to found new software export companies
in India; the proliferation of software training institutions to train hundreds of
thousands of graduates in a wide range of computer-related skills; the liberalization of
computer imports; opening up of the telecommunications sector for private and foreign
investment; software export promotion incentives; and so forth.
Regardless whether the field is agriculture or computer
technology, different countries are at different stages of progression. There are also
considerable differences between regions within countries. The most appropriate strategy
for any country or region will be to identify precisely where it currently is on the
development progression in each specific field and to identify and implement measures that
will advance activities in the field in a logical sequence to the next higher stages.
This does not mean that every developing country needs now to
pass through the entire sequence of steps that nations have earlier passed through in each
field, since access to knowledge, technology, organizational know-how and markets is far
greater today that in the past. Nor does it imply that the time required for each stage of
progression today need be similar to what it was in the past. The world is much better
prepared for rapid change today than during any earlier period. However, it does mean that
there are essential prerequisites for each further stage of advancement and that the
maximum progress will be achieved in the minimum time by identifying and fulfilling these
conditions. The more conscious a society becomes of the essential stages and conditions
for the development process, the more rapidly it can traverse the ground that others have
already passed over, abridging the time and avoiding the errors and problems of those who
have come earlier.
The goal of generating 500 million additional employment
opportunities within the coming decade may have been inconceivable at any time in the
past. Even now, many may find it difficult to believe this goal is achievable. But, so too
were many of the worlds recent accomplishments in different fields before and even
after their realization. The end of the Cold War and imminent threat of nuclear
annihilation, the peaceful unification of Europe, and global spread of the Internet are
striking recent instances of humanitys heightened capacity for rapid advancement.
Never before has world society had the power for such a significant undertaking, one that
can provide greater economic security for vast sections of humanity. The very fact that
the YES initiative has been conceived and set in motion is an expression of an enhanced
capacity for creative thinking and constructive action.
In an age when human rights and needs are continuously reaffirmed
in the international arena, it is easy to mistake the call for full employment as one more
in a long list of unfulfilled and, perhaps,
unachievable human aspirations. But that would be an error of judgment equivalent in
magnitude to that to which many Europeans fell prey a few centuries ago when they looked
upon the call for political democracy as utopian idealism or idle fancy. In retrospect it
is now evident that the political emancipation of the common citizenry from the exercise
of arbitrary power and tyranny by monarchical rule, which the advent of modern democracy
has brought about, represents that indispensable foundation for humanitys enormous
social progress over the past several hundred years. Political freedom has liberated human
thought, aspiration, energy and initiative from the oppression of physical power. The
principle of might is right has largely given place to the principle of right is might in
the governance of advanced democratic nations.
But political democracy can only be considered the first step,
the first of four great freedoms that are necessary to fully liberate the power of the
human spirit for the fulfillment of life on earth. Political emancipation must be
succeeded by an economic emancipation that will permanently abolish the insecurity and
threat of deprivation that still looms like a specter over the lives of large sections of
humanity. No amount of technological development or prosperity can by itself ensure
economic security for all. This second great freedom can only be brought about by the
proclamation and enforcement of the right of every citizen to a sustainable livelihood,
which means a commitment and dedication of every society to the goal of full employment.
The sense of peace and security generated by such a commitment will release a hitherto
unimaginable outpouring of human energy, creativity and accomplishment in all fields of
activity. If instituted now, it can bring within the century just beginning greater
progress for humanity than has been achieved during the entire millennium that has just
come to a close.
Political and economic emancipation together constitute the
necessary foundation for two higher levels of human freedom and fulfillment. First, it
will make possible a psychological emancipation of the human individual from oppression,
confinement and conformity to the ruling ideas, values, thoughts, feelings and behaviors
that the dominant majority in every society seeks to impose as a subtle form of control
and domination over itself and everyone else. Psychological emancipation will give rise to
a society of thinking, creative individuals capable of conceiving and realizing in life
ideals we dare not believe in or even dream of today. And finally, this third freedom will
make possible a fourth, a spiritual emancipation of humanity from the limitations and
oppression of the human ego and a discovery of the spiritual infinity which is our true
source and destiny.
Social development is a process of self-conception by which the
collective progressively realizes in action new ideas and values that it has previously
embraced in thought. The insistence on affirming the human right to assured employment
opportunities does not issue merely from an idealistic call for a social justice or from
sympathy with the economic insecurity and profound physical suffering of those who live in
physical deprivation, though both justice and human sympathy demand nothing less. Rather
this insistence arises from an understanding that this affirmation is an inevitable next
step in the natural course of human development, which sooner or later the human community
will demand and take by force if it is not extended by consent.
In retrospect we take for granted the previous steps in this
evolutionary progression of humanity, steps which at the moment they were proposed seemed
utopian, unrealistic or even anathema to many who were called upon to take them. The
extension of property rights and voting rights to the un-enfranchised majority in
monarchical Europe, the abolition of slavery in North America, the end of West European
imperialism and colonial empires around the globe, the elimination of military rule in
Latin America and totalitarianism in Eastern Europe, the eradication of social ostracism,
religious persecution, untouchability and caste privilege, and the global battle to
eradicate famine, illiteracy and epidemic disease are inevitable steps from
humanitys primitive, feudal past in which a small minority possessed all the
privileges at the expense of the unpossessed majority to a free and prosperous future in
which every individual is not only free to strive but empowered to achieve and enjoy the
fruits of freedom and prosperity.
Yet, at the moment these rights were first proposed, they were
vigorously denied or scorned by those few who enjoyed the security and privilege of prior
possession. A landed aristocracy ridiculed the notion that the masses could or should
choose their own representatives, formulate their own laws and govern themselves. An
educated minority derided the idea that every citizen could or should acquire literacy and
book knowledge. But these and so many other apparently unrealizable and, perhaps from the
perspective of an earlier period, undesirable goals have been accepted in principle as the
rightful heritage if not yet the concrete possession of all humanity.
The process of this evolutionary progression is well documented
and its lessons can readily be drawn. Every society has the option of utilizing one of two
modes of progress, evolutionary or revolutionary; either to accept the natural and
inevitable course of human development that is gradually extending greater and greater
rights and privileges to all human beings or to resist the inevitable course until the
growing social pressure of evolutionary force explodes and wipes out the old order. While
both courses are possible, they are certainly not equally desirable. The first can result
in a very rapid and smooth advancement leading to a far higher level of material
prosperity for everyone. The second may easily result in a more or less prolonged period
of social disorder, insecurity and destruction of the old, before the new can be built on
a stable foundation. The Summit should project the evolutionary pathway to a
more peaceful and prosperous future, reveal the great magnitude of the opportunity that
exists for rapid progress at this time, and provide a map for those willing to convert
this opportunity into reality.
Authors: Garry Jacobs is Director,
International Center for Peace and Development in Napa, CA, USA.
N. Asokan and Rajashree Venkatesh are research associates at MSS Research, Pondicherry, India.
[1] International Labour Office, World Employment 1998-99.
[2] The convention is Employment Policy Convention, 1964 (No.122)
cited by ILO in World Employment 1995.
[3] International Commission on Peace and Food, Uncommon
Opportunities: An Agenda for Peace and Equitable Development, Zed Books, 1994, p.86.
[4] World Employment 1995, p.193.
[5] Bout, J.K., et al., A Dutch Approach for creating growth
and employment, Institute de lEntreprise, 1999.
[6] International Monetary Fund, World Economic Outlook 2000,
p.51 and 54.
[7] A comprehensive theoretical study of soils, climate, vegetation
and topography conducted by Buringh, van Heemst and Staring (1975) indicated that both
land and water utilized for agriculture could be doubled, if necessary, and that the earth
could support 36 times the 1975 level (18 times the 1990 level) of cereal production using
the same share of cultivated land for cereal production. There would be severe practical
obstacles to such a vast expansion of croplands, but these findings suggest that physical
limitations to food production are not the primary constraints. A more commonly accepted
estimate indicates that the world's land and water used for agriculture could more than
double.
[8] Similar analysis is needed for other developed nations.
[9] Data from US Bureau of Labor Statistics.
[10] This estimate is based on rough approximations. An accurate
assessment of the potential would provide useful data for the Summit.
[11] International Commission on Peace and Food, p.53, 57.
[12] ILO has identified three key factors that ensured full employment during this period. First, the post-Second World War international economic system gave high priority to the objective of full employment. It is a recurring theme in most official documents of the new post-war international economic order Second, there was a social consensus in the industrialized countries over institutional arrangements in respect of setting wages and prices, the distribution between wages and profits, and the state fiscal, credit and welfare policies that guaranteed minimum living standards and maintained aggregate demand Third, at the international level, the global economic system functioned under stable monetary and trading arrangements. (p.195-6)
[13] Figures
extracted from ILOs on-line employment database.
[14]
These are 1990
figures
[15]
G. Rangaswami, Prosperity
2000, Volume 1 & 2, Bharat Vidya Bhavan, 1992. Copies of the summary (Vol.
1) are available to download at
www.icpd.org.
[16] A complete program for enhancing crop yields and income has been
developed by California Agricultural Consulting Services, Davis, CA, USA.
[17] Crop yields prepared by California Agricultural Consulting
Services, USA.
[18] Information Technology Association of America sponsored study
Bridging the Gap: Information Technology Skills for a New Millennium, released
in April 2000,
www.itaa.org.
[19] Detailed information on I.T. Enabled Services is available at
www.nasscom.com.
[20] Statistics from UNESCO online 1999 Yearbook 1999 database
[21] Statistics from UNESCO online 1999 Yearbook 1999 database
[22] Lietaer, Bernard,
The Future of Money.
[23] Repackaging the micro-credit programme, Businessline,
May 2, 2000, p.12.
[24] For more information on Indias efforts in this field, see
www.nasscom.com.
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